This is a study of the relative validity of Chinese “Grand Duke” belief using the data from Las Vegas mass shooting.

Chinese believes that each year is governed by one of the 60 divine rulers or “Grand Dukes” from heaven.  Each one is represented by one of the 12 Chinese Zodiac animal signs.  For 2017, Grand Duke is represented by the rooster sign.

According to Chinese astrology, everyone is born with an Zodiac animal sign based on the birth year.  These zodiac animals have controlling and nurturing relationship with each other.  This relationship forms the belief of Grand Duke violations.

For year 2017, the Grand Duke sign is rooster.  Accordingly, people with the following animal signs are regarded as “violating Grand Duke“.  We have put the statistics of the Las Vegas mass shooting in the list for easy comparison on the study of Grand Duke effect.

“Fu-yin” or same animal sign of Grand Duke 值太岁– people with rooster sign

  • ROOSTER : years born– 1945, 1957, 1969, 1981,  1993, 2005, 2017   
  • People with current age (in 2017): 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84  
  • Las Vegas data:  3  cases (age: 24, 36, 48)

“Fan-yin” or “clashing” the animal sign of Grand Duke 冲太岁– people with rabbit sign

  • RABBIT: years born– 1939, 1951, 1963, 1975, 1987, 1999, 2011  
    People with current age (in 2017):  6, 18, 30, 42, 54, 66, 78, 90   
  • Las Vegas data:  6  cases (age: 54, 54, 42, 42, 42, 30) 
  • Note:  This is the most severe condition that may cause severe sickness, injury or death. 

“Hai” or “prosecuting” the animal sign of Grand Duke 太岁– people with dog sign

  • DOGyears born– 1934, 1946, 1958, 1970,  1982, 1994, 2006   
  • People with current age (in 2017):  11, 23, 35, 47, 59, 71 
  • Las Vegas data:  2  cases (age: 23, 35)   

“Po” or “damaging” the animal sign of Grand Duke 太岁—- people with rat sign

  •  RATyears born– 1948, 1960, 1972, 1984, 1996, 2008 
  • People with current age (in 2017):  9, 21, 33, 45, 57, 69 
  • Las Vegas data:  2  cases (age:  33, 33)


Clashing Grand Duke:  With 12 animal signs and 58 cases, the normal probability should be around 5 incidents of “clashing Grand Duke” here.  The actual result is 6 which is slightly over 10%.  This is consistent with my past analyses of mass shooting that around 10- 15% of victims were “clashing Grand Duke” at time of incident.

Should you be wary of your “clashing Grand Duke” age when you are 24, 36, 48, 60, 72….?  If you look at the data here– out of 6 cases, only 1 is below age 40 and all are above 40.  This means your probability of getting shot will be higher if you are at “clashing Grand Duke” age and above 40.

Fu-yin or same animal sign of Grand Duke:  The frequency of this condition shows up at half of the “clashing Grand Duke” scenario.

Prosecuting or damaging Grand Duke:  There are only 2 cases each for each scenario.  However, all 4 cases are under age 40.


1.  Out of this four violating Grand Duke scenarios, “clashing Grand Duke” has the strongest validity and probably statistically significant with 10%+ frequency, especially when the person is over 40.  This means one has to be more vigilant when attending public events, traveling and the like during one’s clashing Grand Duke years (esp. when above 40 years old).

2.  For people under 40, they should be more vigilant when attending public events, traveling and the like during their “prosecuting” or “damaging” Grand Duke years.

3.  When lumping all Grand Duke related cases here, the total is 13 or  22.4% of the deaths are Grand Duke related.  This should raise your alarm level on the validity of the Grand Duke belief.

RIP Deceased victims of the mass shooting

Ken Lai